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TIME MACHINE
BY FREDERIC D. SCHWARZ
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Fifty Years Ago
Dewey Defeats Dewey
On November 2 President Harry S. Truman was returned to office by the voters, defeating Gov. Thomas E. Dewey of New York in the greatest upset in the history of American presidential elections. The famous Chicago Tribune headline DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN, held triumphantly aloft by a gleeful Truman the morning after, is the most famous of the inaccurate predictions that preceded the election, but far from the only one. Virtually every publication and “expert” had taken a Dewey victory for granted.
In retrospect, observers attributed the surprising outcome to the two candidates’ campaign rhetoric. Truman had come out cutting and slashing from the start, decrying the “do nothing” Republican Eightieth Congress over and over in nearly every speech. Dewey, comfortable with his safe lead, apparently decided to imitate Calvin Coolidge—the only successful Republican President of his adult life —by saying nothing. He opted for warm, fuzzy addresses praising freedom, justice, and unity, rarely deigning even to mention Truman. The result was a stultifying blandness, something not usually seen in New York politicians. By going into the “prevent defense” too early, Dewey and the Republicans allowed a scrappy Democratic team to come from way behind.
That’s one way to look at it. Another way is that Dewey took the high road and Truman took the low road, and the result was what usually happens when those two approaches collide. Truman blamed all the country’s ills on the Republican-controlled Congress, skillfully deflecting suggestions that a Democratic President (and fourteen years of Democratic Congresses, against which the voters had rebelled so strongly in 1946) might have been involved in some fashion. He decried the “antilabor” Taft-Hartley Law, although he had invoked its terms seven times in a little more than a year.
Dewey took a more nuanced view: “I will not contend that all our difficulties today have been brought about by the present National Administration.” He learned to his dismay what becomes of nuanced views in American politics. Despite recent disclosures of Communists in the federal government, and polls showing the Soviet Union as voters’ greatest concern, Dewey refused suggestions that he engage in red baiting. Truman, meanwhile, asserted that “if anybody in this country is friendly to the Communists, it is the Republicans”—even as he did his best to stir up class warfare with talk of “the economic tapeworm of big business,” “bloodsuckers with offices in Wall Street, princes of privilege, plunderers.” For variety he also compared the Republican party to the Nazis.
Mudslinging aside, the 1948 election marked an epochal shift in American politics that no one suspected at the time: the end of New York State’s primacy in presidential politics. In twenty-one presidential elections after the end of the Civil War, a New Yorker had been on at least one majorparty ticket in twenty of them. (The lone exception had come in 1896.) In its heyday the Empire State was by far the nation’s largest, and since it was closely balanced between the two parties, anyone running for President had to pay attention to it.
In the twelve presidential elections since Dewey’s collapse, however, there have been only three New Yorkers on major-party tickets, all vice-presidential candidates and all losers (William E. Miller in 1964, Géraldine Ferraro in 1984, and Jack Kemp in 1996). Not since Robert Kennedy in 1968 has there even been a strong primary challenge from New York. The Empire State and the Republican party have grown apart through the years, and in every close election since Dewey, New York has gone Democratic. Along with the Sunbelt’s great population growth, these changes have combined to make New York almost an afterthought for modern-day presidential candidates.
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The Also-Rans
Besides Truman’s stunning upset, 1 the 1948 race is remembered for having two serious minor-party candidates, Strom Thurmond of the States’ Rights Democrats and Henry Wallace of the Progressives. Thurmond, campaigning almost exclusively in the South (though he did receive 7 popular votes in New Hampshire and 374 in North Dakota), appealed to white Southerners’ resentment of Truman’s and the Democrats’ civil rights measures. Wallace, while endorsing a broad spectrum of liberal and leftist causes, most strongly advocated a softer line toward the Soviet Union.
Each candidate hoped to deny Truman victory, and obviously neither one succeeded. The twin failures eliminated both parties as major factors in presidential politics. Yet they did better than their quick fade into oblivion suggests. Wallace attracted more than 500,000 votes in New York, a state that Truman lost by only about 60,000. Had Dewey won the Presidency in a narrow race, New York’s 47 electoral votes could easily have been the key. And Dewey came closer to winning than is indicated by his shortfall in electoral votes (303 to 189, with 39 for Thurmond) and popular votes (24.1 million to 22.0 million, with Thurmond and Wallace drawing a little more than a million each).
The Democratic margin in three large states—California, Illinois, and Ohio—was less than 1 percent. Had Dewey won all three of these states, he would have had a bare majority in the Electoral College. Had he won two of them, the election would have been thrown into the House of Representatives, which was exactly what Thurmond was hoping for. As it was, Truman won, and supporters of both fringe groups decided to pursue their causes within the regular Democratic party. In years since, they have been so successful that the last three Democratic Presidents have all been Southerners with liberal views, especially on civil rights—in essence, a cross between Thurmond and Wallace with the extremism removed.
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Seventy -five Years Ago
Swords Into Plowshares Dept.
In November, at the prompting of the famous inventor Thomas A. Edison, the U.S. Army’s Chemical Warfare Service considered using poison gas—the deadly scourge of the recently concluded World War—for a much more humane purpose: easing the suffering of trapped animals. A New York City banker and animal lover had asked Edison if it would be possible to dispatch creatures caught in steel traps with a quick jolt of electricity. The Wizard of Menlo Park replied: “I do not think it commercially practicable to combine electricity with a trap. … It would be more practicable to have the movement of the trap break a container filled with deathdealing war gas. This would be easy and practicable as well as inexpensive.”
The banker relayed Edison’s suggestion to War Department officials, who seemed enthusiastic, noting that such a trap would be easy to build and could even use the “regulation service toxic candle” to deliver the coup de grâce. Fortunately the idea was soon dropped, sparing America the sight of Billy Bob stopping by the hardware store to pick up a gallon of phosgene. The scheme had an eerie parallel after World War II, however, when civil engineers experimented with using small-scale nuclear explosions to create excavations for harbors and dams.
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One Hundred and Twenty-five Years Ago
Boss Tweed Goes to fail
On November 19 William M. Tweed, the deposed boss of New York City’s monumentally corrupt municipal government, was convicted on 204 misdemeanor counts of approving fraudulent invoices. The invoices in question accounted for only a small fraction of the twenty million to two hundred million dollars that Tweed and his associates had stolen from the city between 1865 and 1871. The conviction culminated a four-year campaign to bring Tweed to justice that had been led by two men: George Jones, the publisher of The New York Times (which proudly proclaimed itself “THE ONLY REPUBLICAN JOURNAL in the City of New York”), and Thomas Nast, the cartoonist whose wicked caricatures in Harper’s Weekly were a constant torment to Tweed. Tweed had unsuccessfully offered both men large bribes to leave him alone.
As their attacks intensified, other citizens joined in the reform movement, motivated by a mixture of disgust at Tweed’s thievery and contempt for his followers. At first Tweed’s opponents were mostly native-born (though Nast was German), Protestant, upper-class Republicans. His core supporters were the exact opposite: foreign-born (usually Irish), Catholic, lower-class Democrats. Aristocrats feared what would become of their beloved city when put in the hands of such people. The reformers’ idea of clean government was rule by gentlemen too rich to take bribes.
The big break came in July 1871, when the Times began publishing receipts and records documenting the Tweed Ring’s defalcations. The incriminating papers had been stolen by a minor ring functionary who was angry at being denied a payoff he felt entitled to. As the exposé continued, politicians and newspaper editors jumped on the bandwagon and a reform Democratic faction emerged. Some ring members fled the country, others turned canary, while still others decided to stick with the tried-and-true tactics of bribery and intimidation. Tweed, choosing the last of these courses, had managed to arrange a hung jury at his first trial, but a carefully selected and sequestered panel convicted him the second time around.
Tweed was released in January 1875 but was immediately rearrested. The state was suing him for six million dollars, and he would be confined until he posted half the amount as bail. This time he was held in debtor’s prison, where his wealth bought him moderately pleasant accommodations and daily trips, accompanied by the jailer, to see his family. On one such excursion in December 1875, Tweed escaped (possibly with the jailer’s complicity), and he remained at large for close to a year until he was captured in Spain, working as a common seaman on a Spanish brig. Authorities there had identified him from his likeness in a Nast cartoon.
Events that followed his return almost managed to turn Tweed into a sympathetic figure. The state’s suit had been decided against him in his absence, and he now owed six million dollars. With his health failing and his empire in ruins, what Tweed craved most of all was a final few years of peace. In 1877 he wrote out a long, detailed confession of his ring’s activities, offering it and all the property he still owned in return for his release from jail. That turned out to be carrying reform too far.
The confession named many important figures in both parties who had previously been thought to be clean. Even the former governor Samuel J. Tilden, who had built his reputation on overthrowing the Tweed Ring, was implicated. Rather than reveal half of the city and state government to be crooks, Att. Gen. Charles S. Fairchild returned the confession to Tweed, claiming it was inaccurate. The investigation of ring activities petered out, and Tweed died in the debtors’ prison on April 12, 1878. His last words were, “I hope Tilden and Fairchild are satisfied now.”
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