October 16, 2006
Election Season Predictions, Round 1 Posted by Joshua Zeitz at 08:00 PM EST It’s probably a little premature to go on record with Election Day predictions, but I’ll take a stab at this anyway and invite my fellow AmericanHeritage.com contributors to do the same. Based on current polling data, I’d wager that the Democrats will pick up a net gain of between 25 and 30 House seats (they need only 15 to regain control), and a net gain of about five Senate seats. On the Senate side, Democrats will win GOP-held seats Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, and Pennsylvania, and either Missouri or Virginia (but not both). This will leave them just short of a majority in the upper chamber. While 2006 will be an important year in American politics, it won’t be a watershed year like 1974, 1980, or 1994. The sharp polarization of the electorate and the sophisticated computer models that have allowed House incumbents to redraw their districts in a way that reduces or eliminates competition on a district-by-district basis have made it unlikely (indeed, almost impossible) that turnover will achieve historic records. In 1974 voters punished the GOP for the crimes of Watergate; the party lost 48 seats in the House and four in the Senate. In 1980 the Democrats, reeling from Abscam and from Jimmy Carter’s malaise (stagflation, hostage crisis, oil crisis), lost 12 Senate seats and 35 House seats. In 1994, in the wake of Bill Clinton’s disastrous first two years in office, Democrats lost 54 House seats. No such grand realignment is likely to occur this year, because the districts are too tightly drawn. Moreover, while the GOP is taking a real drubbing in the polls, no one should discount the party’s get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation. There was a time when Democrats and their allies in organized labor were better at GOTV than the Republican party and its business backers. No more. Look for state and national party organizations to close much of the gap on Election Day, with critical help from evangelical Christian churches, which are currently somewhat disengaged—but not entirely aloof—from the upcoming electoral cycle. There are my predictions. They’re subject to change. Three weeks is a lifetime in politics.
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