November 6, 2006
Samuel Burchard, John Kerry, and the Pre-election Blunder Posted by Joshua Zeitz at 05:15 PM EST A few days ago I posted on the (exciting if you're a Democrat, dispiriting,= if you're a Republican) shift in the gender gap. I spoke too soon. In its last poll before the election, the Pew Research Center for People and the Press revealed not only a much closer national race between Democrats and Republicans, but also a narrower 11-point Democratic lead among women and a very narrow 1-point Democratic lead among men. Critically, the Democrats are now losing white women by 2 points. A month ago, they led among white women by 15 points. Over at The New Republic there’s a good debate about how much of the Democrats’ reversal of fortune owes to John Kerry’s unbelievably stupid joke last week—a joke that intended to take a swipe at George Bush’s intellect but instead managed to insult American servicemen and servicewomen. I’m not sure to what extent the Kerry gaffe is responsible for the new poll numbers. But certainly if post-election surveys prove its significance, and if Democrats underperform, Kerry’s joke will go down as the most disastrous pre-campaign statement since 1884, when Rev. Samuel Burchard decried the dangers of “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” at an appearance with Sen. James G. Blaine of Maine. That little speech cost Blaine enough Catholic votes to lose a very narrow race against Grover Cleveland. Today, nervous Democrats probably feel about John Kerry much the same way Republicans felt about Samuel Burchard.
|
