September 23, 2006
Michael Steele Again Posted by Joshua Zeitz at 01:00 PM EST I certainly wouldn’t begrudge John Steele Gordon the right to support a candidate who shares his distinguished name. But I think he might be jumping the gun just a bit in guessing that “the fact that a black Republican has a good shot at winning a statewide race in the very blue state of Maryland is powerful evidence that the days of the Democratic party monopolizing the black vote may be over.” I haven’t seen any polls that break Michael Steele’s support down by race. He could simply be doing well in a state that elected a Republican governor the last time around. Remember that in 2000 and 2004 George Bush’s share of the black vote was abysmally low. That said, there is some movement. In Ohio, Bush won just 9 percent of the black vote in 2000, and 16 percent in 2004. Sixteen percent isn’t much to write home about, but it still represents a sizable jump. Likewise, a poll of over 1,800 black Americans conducted by the Roper Center in June 2006 revealed that 32 percent leaned Republican, and 45 percent leaned Democratic. That would suggest something much closer to parity and competition. Still, I’m a little dubious. Every election season, pundits tell us that key Democratic constituencies like Jews and African-Americans are moving into the Republican fold. In 1972 the newspapers were rife with speculation that American Jews might finally break for the GOP. But in New York City the Democrat George McGovern won a whopping 85 percent of the Jewish vote (nationally, he won about two thirds of the Jewish vote). Other than Ronald Reagan, who won as much as 40 percent of the Jewish vote in 1980, no Republican has gotten close. I suspect the same is true of African-American voters. The old New Deal electoral coalition may not be what it used to be, but it’s still got some power behind it.
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